Dirk Nowitzki: Best in Basketball?
Can the Dallas Maverick's forward become the best in the NBA?
Feb 2, 2007
To informed fans of a sport which venerates the talent and accomplishments of names such as Chamberlain, Russell, Bird, Johnson and Jordan, it may be somewhat of a heresy to make the following claim: twenty years from now, a decidedly non-American name of Nowitzki will join the ranks of the all-time greatest players of the game of basketball, and may even be acclaimed as the best of that elite group.
Anyone making this argument in our present time would certainly be guffawed at, even given the remarkable-by-any-measure career line Dirk Nowitzki has generated to this date. Current season averages of 25 points, over 9 rebounds and 3 assists per game in this modern era are matched by only an elite few already recognized as immortals of the sport, such as Shaquille O'Neal. But Nowitzki's talents and contribution to his team's (Dallas Mavericks) success transcend his contemporaries when measured by "prime productivity" (PP).
This term I have coined to account for the learning curve that each player who becomes a professional must transverse before they reach a consistent level of contribution. This incubation period is even more critical for a player such as Dirk who entered the league at 18 and had no college playing experience. My sentiments would be that 2 years should be excluded from a player's stats to give a truer picture, but since players such as Shaq O'Neal have had monster years in their sophomore season, I will arbitrarily eliminate the player's first year, as well as the high and low achievements in any category (this is a basic tenet of statistical analysis), and any year that due to injury the player's performance was off greater than 20% from his career average.
Using Shaq as the yardstick (actually that would be at least 2 in his case), we come up with a PP of 27 points, and 11.5 rebounds. This is of course a Top 50 All-Time player designated as such by the league, and this designation is supported by writers and fans alike. So how does Dirk fair? He comes in with 24 points and 9.2 rebounds. In other words, a three point field goal and 2 rebounds a game difference from the greatness of Shaq.
And then consider Dirk as being 6 years younger than Shaq, who is admittedly in the twilight of his career. Nowitzki's average for the past three seasons has been 26/9.5, and his game from all recent accounts has been sterling. The final element in the comparison between the German baller and the Miami Heat center is perhaps unfair, but must be mentioned. While O'Neal is a career 53% free throw shooter, Dirk has already assumed the mantle of the best foul shooting big man (while not playing often as a center in his career, he is a legitimate 7-footer) to ever play the game, reaching at or above 90% in the past three seasons.
The icing on this German chocolate cake is to be found in the over 900 three pointers Nowitzki has made in his career, far more than anyone of his height has ever made, with a career average of almost 40% from that range. All of this and he has yet to reach his 29th birthday. Dirk's devotion to the game of basketball, and to conditioning his body to withstand the considerable rigors of the sport, augurs that his career may extend for another ten-plus years close to the same level of productivity, at which point he may be in the top 5 of every statistical production category.
Springfield, Massachusetts is well-known as the birthplace of basketball and home of that sport's Hall of Fame. Twenty years from now, there will be a international flavor entering this once almost all American bastion of athletic prowess, and Dirk Nowitzki will take his place among, and perhaps above, the stars of his and all other generations.
